I’ve started to learn about game theory. The idea that every game has a strategy that can be studied and iterated thousands of times over is extremely fascinating. One game theory in particular is Prisoner’s dilemma. If you’re unfamiliar, the elementary concept is that 2 prisoners are being interrogated separately and each is offered an incentive for confession. Even though the two may have already made a pact to stick to their stories, there is no guarantee that the incentive won’t sway the other prisoner to give in. The dilemma is to make the choice that optimizes reward and reduces pain, even if that means taking the incentive offered.

I started to think about how this plays out in health and fitness. In some ways we all practice the prisoner’s dilemma with ourselves when we make decisions about whether or not to eat that cheat meal or skip leg day. Each side of that coin is offered an incentive; one side more enticing than the other. We can give into the incentive and take the immediate gratification or persist and gain reward later on.

The first rule in “The Art of Strategy: A Game Theorist’s Guide to Success in Business and Life” by Avinash K. Dixit, and Barry J. J. Nalebuff is: Look Forward and reason backward. This approach to thinking is all about decision trees. Each decision will branch off and create additional choices. To win the game, you have to anticipate the how the opponent is making their decision in future branches and utilize that information to make your first move. In a game where the opponent is another person, this process is a lot harder to do, but what if you’re just playing this game with yourself?

What does that initial decision to skip the gym or eat all the tacos look like several branches in the future? Will the immediate reward yield more painful consequences? You ultimately know yourself the best. Will skipping the workout today create greater motivation to pick it up tomorrow, or will you fall back into another round of prisoner’s dilemma where the incentive to skip again outweighs the gains later on.

You are playing both sides of the ball in your personal prisoner’s dilemma. We all “know” the correct answer, but why do we find ourselves choosing poorly in the moment? Before I started making an effort to wake up early and start my day with a workout I would notice that the mood cadence of my day would be decided in those first 20 minutes of being awake. When I stood staring at the wall in the shower trying to wake up, my mind would wander into negativity as I thought about all of the things I needed to get accomplished for the day. Reasoning with myself in this exhausted state was foolish, yet I let those moments determine how my day would turn out.

I would suggest a different approach. We can’t simply shut off our brains from thinking in the shower; they’re called shower thoughts for a reason. We can however choose to direct those thoughts elsewhere until we are cognizant enough to make those checklist decisions without having the exhaustion bias. Intentionally distract your brain with something else. Pick a movie you you’ve watched a thousand times and see if you can quote the entire thing. Get a song stuck in your head. Give your brain something to do other than making important decisions.

When the time comes to make those choices about how you will spend your day, pause for a moment and create a mental decision tree. Write it down if it helps. Instead of just logging the first 2 branches of the tree, go as far as you can down those branches to anticipate your own moves. You have all the historical data in the world about your past decisions that you can reference what those outcomes will look like; Look forward reason backward.

Picture the other version of yourself in another room being interrogated by the choice in front of you. You can cave and take the incentive, or hold your ground and make gains. The choice is and always has been yours.

Happy Friday! Get a strong start to your weekend.